War Monger Sensationalism
Over the past month, Western media has been warning of an imminent Russian invasion of Ukraine. With nearly 100,000 troops stationed roughly 100 miles off the Eastern Ukrainian border, the Biden administration and State Department have consistently stated that any incursion into the Eastern Ukrainian regions of Donbas and Lugansk will carry severe consequences. It has even been alleged that Russia’s ultimate goal is the deposition of the current Ukrainian regime and the installment of a Pro-Russian puppet government, and that there is classified information that suggests a Russian false flag operation will take place to justify military intervention.
However, all of this is most likely hyperbolic nonsense. Even Ukrainian President Zelensky has asked America to settle down with its rhetoric. The stated reason was in order to maintain domestic peace and prevent panic. However, it is most likely a response to the Ukrainian hryvnia’s global currency market value collapsing under the shadow of alleged Russian invasion.
What’s at stake?
There have been many hypotheses for what Russia wants. One is a minimum guarantee that missile systems with dual-launch capability will never be placed in the Donbas and Lugansk regions. This is a major national security threat to Russia, as this would give NATO a launch site from which missiles could potentially reach Moscow before being detected by missile radar, severely crippling Russia’s second-strike capability. A second is a formal agreement that Ukraine would not join NATO, giving Russia a much-desired buffer zone from the NATO alliance. Third is a much more ambitious agenda, in that Russia wants NATO to start withdrawing stationed troops and missile systems from all former Warsaw pact countries.
All of these are perfectly valid hypotheses. However, we can understand this on a more fundamental level if we zoom out and analyze this from a general geopolitical framework.
What’s REALLY at stake? - Unipolarism vs Multipolarism
For Russia
The genesis of our analysis is Afghanistan. After a poorly executed withdrawal and the American backed Afghani government collapsing in less than a week to the Taliban, the strength of the United States as the unipolar geopolitical power of the world was thrown into question. Biden is a president that major global contenders consider weak, European leaders criticized the Afghanistan withdrawal as a complete disaster, and countries are beginning to question whether America is a reliable ally. Consequently, Russia is beginning to feel that their chance to change the geopolitical landscape from a unipolar to a multipolar world has arrived. Russian diplomats and advisers have taken a notable rhetorical shift and Russia is staring down the United States to see who will blink.
Invasion of Donbas and Lugansk has no strategic value for Russia. Russia could have integrated that territory in 2014 when the eastern regions held referendum votes to join the Russian Federation, and Putin denied them. So, what sense does it make for Russia to invade Ukraine now when the bulk of the international community and media is fixed on Ukraine? In fact, it was predicted by Ted Cruz and other international hawks that Russia would have invaded Ukraine by mid-January.
No, with Nord Stream 2 set to begin service in mid-2022, an imminent energy deal with China to be traded in Euros, edging America out of a major regional market, and increasingly advanced military technologies, this has the markings of the Russian bear puffing its chest and sensing its opportunity to begin asserting itself back into what it views as its sphere of influence, namely the former Soviet satellite states.
For America
On the other hand, the United States is aware of the precarious situation it is in. Its international reputation as a global power is at stake. Over thirty years of post-Cold War unipolar power has resulted in a disastrous cycle of war and chaos in the Middle East, a growing geopolitical rival in China fueled by neo-liberal trade policy that was implemented in hopes of liberalizing the Chinese communist government, a continental Europe that is slowly beginning to doubt America’s value as a global partner, and a rocky relationship with Russia that seems on the brink of no return. Afghanistan was a major international blunder that started Biden’s collapse in approval ratings which is now in the low thirties due to inflation skyrocketing, an increasing skepticism of COVID policies that are out of sync with current data, and failure to appease the Democratic voter base with the Voting Rights Bill and Build Back Better.
The Biden administration sees Ukraine as a chance to serve a dual purpose: turning the American people’s eyes away from domestic affairs and a chance to reassert America as a reliable global ally. The advantage that America has is that a stalemate will be considered a victory. Plus, with Western anti-Russian rhetoric still moderately effective, economic sanctions are still able to be justified.
For China?
There is added suspense in the context of recent Chinese rhetoric suggesting that Taiwanese sovereignty is increasingly coming into question. Aside from the geopolitical implications, there are significant economic and national security interests given the fact that America’s supply of advanced superconductors is almost exclusively produced in Taiwan. It is not a stretch to assume that this is something the State Department is far more concerned about than Ukraine. From the CCP’s perspective, if America did nothing about China’s incursion into Honk Kong after Western guarantees of sovereignty, why would Taiwan be any different? Naturally, China will be keeping an eye on Ukraine for any sign of geopolitical weakness from America.
A potentially pivotal moment
Using this geopolitical framework, we now can understand that Ukraine is about much more than the media is portraying it out to be. This is not just a simple question of whether a Russian invasion will happen or not. Depending on the actions of America and Russia, this can prove to be the pivotal moment where either the United States maintains its unipolar status or the world enters a new multipolar geopolitical era.